Iraq’s current challenges reflect the long-term consequences of post-9/11 decisions. Former diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad argues that fear and anger encouraged the United States to invade Iraq on unreliable intelligence and miss opportunities to negotiate with the Taliban. These choices reshaped regional security, strengthened armed nonstate actors, and complicated state-building.
Demographically, Iraq is a young, rapidly urbanizing society with large populations affected by war, displacement, unemployment, and weak public services. Such pressures can increase frustration and make communities vulnerable to militia recruitment or extremist messaging. Regional and sectarian identities also influence political loyalties, although corruption and governance affect citizens across communities.
Economically, Iraq remains heavily dependent on oil exports. Disruptions linked to regional conflict and financial pressure contributed to a nearly 15 percent dinar devaluation, raising concerns about inflation and household purchasing power. Large embezzlement cases involving health, traffic, property, and parliamentary officials demonstrate how corruption diverts resources from development and undermines public trust. International agreements with Oman and cooperation with the United States may improve enforcement, but selective or politically influenced prosecutions could weaken credibility.
Politically, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is presenting anti-corruption measures and the consolidation of weapons under state authority as essential to sovereignty. Convictions of senior officials and lawmakers signal greater institutional assertiveness, yet powerful Iran-backed militias continue to challenge Baghdad. A proposed 2027 deadline for disarmament and integration could reduce fragmentation, but militias may simply rebrand unless Iran supports genuine compliance.
Militarily, ISIS remains capable of attacks in areas such as Kirkuk, requiring intelligence, air defense, and training. After a US withdrawal, Iraq will need security cooperation without appearing dependent on foreign control. Geography makes Iraq strategically important: it connects the Gulf, Iran, Syria, Turkey, and the Levant, while its oil infrastructure and borders expose it to regional competition. A US strategy centered on investment, financial access, and sovereignty may preserve influence more effectively than coercive demands that could provoke conflict.